From the in-depth research and investment prospect analysis report of China's CNC machine tool industry, we understand that the next few years will be the key period for the development of the automotive industry, which is also the largest user of machine tools. Since entering the WTO, the growth of China's automotive industry has been unstoppable. From January to May 2003, a total of 1,733,800 vehicles were produced nationwide, a year-on-year increase of 33.91%; sales of 1,677,500 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 31.46 percentage points, of which 721,800 vehicles were produced, a year-on-year increase of 109.14%; sales of 686,300 vehicles, an increase of 82.75 %. It is estimated that in the whole year of 2003, my country's automobile production is expected to reach 4.2 million, of which the production of cars will reach 1.85 million, an increase of 25% and 75% compared with 2002.
According to authoritative research, it is predicted that for every 1% increase in automobile production, the consumption of CNC machine tools will increase by 0.54%. Therefore, it is preliminary estimated that the consumption of CNC machine tools in 2003 is expected to increase by more than 40% year-on-year, which is significantly higher than the growth of overall machine tool consumption. The long-term deficit will reduce the domestic machine tool product structure adjustment will be a long process, therefore, the import and export deficit of machine tools will further expand in the next 1-2 years. In 2002, the total import and export deficit was 2.845 billion and broke to $3.2 billion in 2003. It is expected to reach 3.6 billion in 2005. However, in the long run, with the continuous improvement of domestic machine tool manufacturing and R&D level, the transfer of international machine tool manufacturing to China will be an unstoppable trend. By then, the import and export trade deficit will gradually decrease.
The intensity of foreign direct investment will increase. Because the machine tool industry is a capital and technology-intensive industry, a large amount of investment exists, the payback period is long, and the effect is slow. There are fewer foreign direct investment fields, and foreign investment is relatively backward, only 2%. Machinery industry and 0.1% of foreign investment in the country. However, after 2002, the above phenomenon has changed to a certain extent. Many well-known foreign machine tool manufacturers, such as Europe's largest machine tool manufacturer DMG and Daewoo Heavy Industries, have established offices in countries, service centers or wholly-owned factories. At the same time, domestic machine tool manufacturers and Sino-foreign joint ventures are not uncommon, such as Shenyang Machine Tool Co., Ltd. and Italy Fidia Co., Ltd., Dalian Machine Tool Group Co., Ltd. and Ingersoll of the United States, and German representative Alex. All have signed different forms of joint venture cooperation agreements.
The profit of output value is expected to increase in an all-round way. Although the machine tool industry has turned around in 2000, it has been unable to get rid of the shadow of profit in the past few years. However, in 2003, with the rapid growth of production and sales of machines and an increase in the proportion of high value-added products, the industry is gradually showing scale effects, and the improvement in operating performance is expected to occur by leaps and bounds. Statistics show that in the first quarter of this year, the eight manufacturing industries in the machine tool industry achieved a total profit of 594.18 million yuan, an increase of 458.55 million yuan over the same period last year. The profits of state-controlled enterprises share the total profits of the industry in the state-owned economy, thereby increasing 3.5 percentage points.
In the second quarter, the machine tool industry was not greatly affected by SARS, and production and sales continued to maintain rapid growth. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of metal cutting machine tools reached 79,900 units, which represented a 34.3% growth rate for the whole year of this year and 23.5%, an increase compared to the previous quarter. . Inferring from this, the machine tool business in the second quarter should not be lower than the level of the first quarter. It is estimated that for the whole year of 2003, the profit of the machine tool industry is expected to reach 2.8 billion yuan, an increase of about 50% over the previous year.
In the long run, because of China's machine tool consumption, there is still a trade deficit of more than 200 billion and the gap between supply and demand, which indicates that the development of my country's machine tool industry has just started and there is still considerable room for growth. In the next 3-5 years, the output value of China's machine tool industry will maintain an average annual growth rate of about 15%.