The Sino-US trade war sword refers to China’s manufacturing 2025, and the recent US sanctions on ZTE have completely lifted the urgency of domestic substitution in the high-end manufacturing sector. In fact, in addition to the low self-sufficiency rate of domestic chips, which led to China's disadvantage in this Sino-US game, the country is also subject to other individual segments. In the context of increasing overseas provocations, these industries have also become precarious. CNC machine tools Is one of them. According to industry data, domestically produced products account for less than 10% of high-end CNC machine tools, and there is huge room for domestic substitution in the future
CNC machine tool, full name digital control machine tool, is an automated machine tool equipped with a program control system. The control system can logically process a program with a control code or other symbolic instructions, decode it, express it with coded numbers, and input it into the numerical control device through an information carrier. After arithmetic processing, the numerical control device sends out various control signals to control the action of the machine tool, and automatically process the parts according to the shape and size required by the drawing.
Shengshi Chuangfu said that with the rapid update and iteration of technology, the level of CNC machine tools in a country has to a certain extent determined the level of manufacturing in the country. Judging from the development of CNC machine tools in my country in recent years, it has always maintained a steady growth trend. According to industry data, from 2014 to 2016, my country's CNC machine tool sales exceeded 240 billion yuan; in 2016, my country's CNC machine tool sales were 273.23 billion yuan, an increase of 7.69% year-on-year; by 2017, sales exceeded 300 billion yuan for the first time. Reached 306.03 billion yuan. It is expected that the output of CNC machine tools in the next few years is expected to continue the previous growth trend, and the growth rate from 2018 to 2020 may remain between 6%-8%. Looking at the downstream terminals, automobiles accounted for 42%, aerospace accounted for 18%, molds accounted for 15%, and construction machinery accounted for 10%. However, it is worth noting that there are large differences in the localization rate of CNC machine tools of different grades, which also leads to a high degree of dependence on external CNC machine tools in some downstream industries. According to the data of the Qianzhan Industry Research Institute, as of 2017, the localization rate of medium and low-end CNC machine tools reached 80%, while the localization rate of mid-range CNC machine tools was 60%, but the localization rate of high-end CNC machine tools was only around 6%. This means that in the high-end field, my country's CNC machine tools are still significantly dependent on imports. According to customs statistics, in 2017, the import and export of my country's machine tool industry was USD 25.791 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.32%, of which imports were USD 14.633 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%; exports were USD 11.158 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.94%. The import and export deficit was as high as US$3.475 billion. Among the export products, most of them are low-value-added machine tools, and the export of metal processing machine tools accounts for only about 30% of the total industry exports.
Europe, the United States, Japan and other developed countries have successively completed the industrialization process of CNC machine tools. my country, as a major manufacturing country, is currently in the critical stage of transforming and upgrading to a "manufacturing power". CNC machine tools are an important part of it, especially in the context of the obvious weakness of high-end CNC machine tools. The country naturally attaches great importance to it.
Made in China 2025 is the action plan for the first ten years of the Chinese government's implementation of the manufacturing power strategy. 10 key areas mentioned in Made in China 2025, "high-end CNC machine tools" include them. According to the action plan, my country will develop a batch of precision, high-speed, high-efficiency, flexible CNC machine tools and basic manufacturing equipment and integrated manufacturing systems; accelerate the research and development of high-end CNC machine tools, additive manufacturing and other cutting-edge technologies and equipment; to improve reliability and maintain accuracy Focusing on performance, develop high-end numerical control systems, servo motors, bearings, gratings and other main functional components and key application software to accelerate industrialization; strengthen user process verification capabilities.
The domestic "04 Special Project", which was launched in 2009, refers to "high-end CNC machine tools and basic manufacturing equipment". It focuses on supporting the independent research and development of key technologies for high-end CNC systems by enterprises such as Central China CNC, Guangzhou CNC, Dalian Guangyang, Shenyang High Precision and Aerospace CNC. Localization of high-end equipment. Shengshi Chuangfu said that more than 90% of the operating systems used in the manufacturing equipment of the national defense and military industry rely on imports, which is bound to cause hidden dangers to national defense security. Under the wave of promoting the localization of high-end manufacturing, national defense and military equipment, as the pillar-type backing for safeguarding national security, is bound to usher in a wave of localization. According to the survey report, there are 6000 sets of CNC machine tools in military industry enterprises that need to replace the domestic CNC system. The goal in 2020 is to achieve 1,000 sets of domestic high-end CNC systems that year. In 2017, the 04 project was included in a new major project-the "brain-changing project", that is, the national defense and military industry will replace imported CNC systems with domestic CNC systems in batches to greatly improve the autonomous controllability and safety level of manufacturing equipment in the defense and military industry. Applied for the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" to increase state allocation funds, most of which will be implemented in 2017-2018
There is ample room for domestic substitution of high-end CNC, which can be a mid- and long-term layout opportunity for listed companies that are paying attention to this field.
Huazhong CNC (300161): CNC system is the company's core business, and CNC machine tools are the extension and expansion of the core business. The company has undertaken a large number of national numerical control technology education and training base construction tasks. The company has broken through a batch of key unit technologies of medium and high-end numerical control systems. The independently developed five-axis linkage numerical control system has broken the technological blockade of developed countries against my country. The company's high-end CNC devices have a market share of more than 65% and mid-range CNC devices more than 30%.
Shenyang Machine Tool (000410): CNC category includes CNC lathes, CNC milling and boring machines, vertical machining centers, CNC drilling machines, laser cutting machines, etc. The i5 CNC system is the company's core technology and also the leading technology of Chinese machine tools. As of the end of 2017, the total operating volume of i5 intelligent machine tools has exceeded 22,000 units. At the same time, the company has built intelligent factories through the organic integration of i5 intelligent machine tools, WIS intelligent workshop information management system, automated production equipment and other units, and has signed a total of 74 intelligent factories. 31 companies have been completed and put into operation.
Yawei shares (002559): a leading enterprise in the domestic high-end sheet metal forming machine tool industry, the leader in CNC coil processing machinery, with three categories and eight major products of CNC flat processing machine tools, CNC coil processing machines, and ordinary flat processing machine tools , 25 series, more than 200 specifications and varieties of metal forming machine tools research and development and manufacturing capabilities, the products sell well in the domestic market, and are exported to more than 30 countries and regions such as Europe, America, Asia and Africa.
Qinchuan Machine Tool (000837): A leading enterprise in the domestic machine tool industry, ranking top three in scale, and a R&D and manufacturing base for precision CNC machine tools and complex tools in China